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- October 8, 2026
- Economics
Refusing to concede? War and everyday rivalry online
Date: 2026-10-05
Time: 4:30 PM - 5:50 PM
Venue: 90402 International Hall
Speaker: Prof. David Smerdon (University of Queensland)
How far does war reach into everyday life? We study 32.4 million online chess games played by 33,687 players from the belligerent countries of three conflicts: Armenia–Azerbaijan (2020), Russia–Ukraine (2022), and Israel–Palestine (2023). Following conflict onset, players became less likely to resign against hostile-country opponents relative to their other games: their probability of resigning fell by 0.46 percentage points, 2.1% of the pre-conflict rate. An independently constructed, engine-analyzed subsample reproduces this estimate almost exactly. When players are weighted equally, the decline for the typical player is roughly three times as large. Fewer concessions meant more checkmates and more losses on time, and players persisted longer in positions that were already objectively lost, without playing worse. War changes everyday behaviour: individuals become reluctant to concede to the other side, even in contests far removed from the fighting.
Time: 4:30 PM - 5:50 PM
Venue: 90402 International Hall
Speaker: Prof. David Smerdon (University of Queensland)
How far does war reach into everyday life? We study 32.4 million online chess games played by 33,687 players from the belligerent countries of three conflicts: Armenia–Azerbaijan (2020), Russia–Ukraine (2022), and Israel–Palestine (2023). Following conflict onset, players became less likely to resign against hostile-country opponents relative to their other games: their probability of resigning fell by 0.46 percentage points, 2.1% of the pre-conflict rate. An independently constructed, engine-analyzed subsample reproduces this estimate almost exactly. When players are weighted equally, the decline for the typical player is roughly three times as large. Fewer concessions meant more checkmates and more losses on time, and players persisted longer in positions that were already objectively lost, without playing worse. War changes everyday behaviour: individuals become reluctant to concede to the other side, even in contests far removed from the fighting.